Statistics show good passing is still key
Criticism of the Jabulani is borne out by Opta, whose analysis shows an inability to shoot straight dominated the first 16 games.
The Jabulani may not have hit the back of the net very often in this World Cup, but the net of public opinion is closing around it. To the naked eye, the controversial Adidas ball that was introduced for this tournament has been a significant factor in the lack of goals so far, and that perception is supported by statistics taken from the first round of group matches.
Opta figures show that, so far, only 33.44% of shots have been on target. That is down by almost 10% in comparison with the Premier League and Champions League last season, and also the World Cup in 2006. While this may be partly attributable to the small sample size, the fact the difference is so pronounced suggests that it is more than a statistical anomaly. Only four sides – Italy, Japan, Slovenia and Germany – have hit the target with more than half of their shots.
The Germans are at the top of most positive lists, as you would expect of a side who have scored twice as many goals as anyone else. Their passing accuracy of 91.54% is the best of the tournament so far, while a total of 579 passes and a passing accuracy of 80.18% in the final third put them behind only Brazil and Spain.
Once upon a time it was the job of the World Cup to challenge received wisdom and introduce new tactical thinking. This time, the manner of Internazionale's Champions League victory under José Mourinho led to a school of thought that possession was less important than before, because of the increased prioritisation of counterattacking. And although Spain's defeat by Switzerland may reinforce that perception, the general trend of the first week has been to reaffirm that most basic of principles: the teams who pass the ball often and accurately are most likely to succeed.
Arguably the five best sides in the tournament – Germany, Spain, Brazil, Holland and Argentina – are the leading five in terms of passing accuracy, both overall and in the final third. Those teams also provide five of the top six in terms of number of passes; the other is Mexico. The lowest-ranked team are Switzerland, with 233.
As a consequence, the usual suspects top the lists for individual creativity: Robinho, Xavi, Lionel Messi and Wesley Sneijder are almost ubiquitous. Xavi hit the most successful passes in the final third, while Robinho and Messi created the most chances. Brazil's dependence on their full-backs to provide an attacking threat is reflected in the fact that only Xavi and Messi played more successful passes in the final third than Maicon.
Frank Lampard was England's most accurate passer at the business end of the pitch, but his completion percentage of 84 is relatively modest. In football circles, the phrase the English Disease once referred to hooliganism; these days it is more likely to mean the apparent chronic inability to pass the ball to a team-mate, which has driven Fabio Capello to distraction and led to Franz Beckenbauer disdainfully asserting that England "have gone backwards to the bad old times of kick and rush".
The statistics don't necessarily support Beckenbauer's comments. Only 13.88% of England's passes against the USA were long, which makes them the 14th-most direct team of the tournament, a fraction ahead of Brazil, for whom jogo bonito is increasingly little more than romantic rhetoric.
Against the USA, England played 425 passes, which puts them 11th out of 32, with an accuracy of 76.94% (19th out of 32, and below even Greece) and an accuracy in the final third of 66.20% (10th out of 32). Yet despite their occasionally blundering nature, England managed regularly to threaten the USA goal. They managed 23 touches in the opposition penalty area, which puts them sixth on a list headed by Spain, whose total of 49 touches was 17 more than the next best, Chile, and 48 more than Honduras at the bottom of the list. Japan, in an affecting display of minimalist attacking football, beat Cameroon 1-0 despite only having three touches in the opposition's penalty area.
In the first round of matches, Spain had the most passes, the most shots and the most touches in the opposition box. If they keep losing, the voices of those who feel that possession is overrated will be heard. Yet for now, it seems that keeping possession of the Jabulani is the way forward, even if you may not want to shoot with it.
